Coronavirus will test supply chain partnerships

2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行不仅是一场影响个人日常生活的健康危机，还导致连锁供应链中断, especially in Asia. 由于重要数据每天都在变化，托运人和运输供应商面临着预测北美疫情影响的压力. 尽管目前还不清楚病毒对供应链可能产生的长期影响, 今天，企业必须就如何适应这种颠覆做出决定.

For now at least, Arrive Logistics’ executive vice president, Eric Lien, is counseling his customers to focus on preparation, 与可信赖的合作伙伴就长期战略进行灵活和过度沟通. arrival Logistics是一家总部位于奥斯汀的第三方物流供应商, Texas, with offices in Chicago and Chattanooga, Tennessee.

中国的制造业工厂和物流服务的关闭恰逢一个漫长的全国性假期——农历新年——连的客户说，这可能是检疫和停工发生的最佳时间.

“I was with 11 customers in LA last week; half a dozen of them were Asian-owned,” Lien said. 他们认为，如果这是一个发生的好时机，那就是现在. 更大的问题是，客户是否有上游供应商来补充他们所依赖的下游制造商? 那些上游制造商还受到冠状病毒造成的劳动力短缺的影响吗?’ There are still many unknowns.”

Prior to Arrive Logistics, Lien spent 14 years at a Fortune 500 food shipper in distribution and supply chain operations; now he leverages that experience as a member of the Strategic Partners Division. This division is composed of executive alumni from enterprise shippers, 运营商和技术供应商，旨在成为丰富内部Arrive团队并提供见解的资源, networking and experience to their partners.

So far, 应对冠状病毒的控制措施已经关闭了中国的大部分生产, causing exports to plunge. 从中国到北美西海岸的集装箱现货价格仍较上年同期下降了10%以上, and import shipment levels at the ports are a fraction of normal volumes. 从洛杉矶出发的多式联运铁路运量自2月初以来下降了36%，比去年与中国新年相关的低谷下降了22%.

Trucking spot rates from Los Angeles to Dallas are down 12% since Feb. 2, while rates in the opposite direction are up 24% in the same period. In other words, the trucking spot market is pricing in softness in Los Angeles, 把它当作一个不受欢迎的回程市场，而不是它通常是丰富的货运来源.

While the drop in Chinese exports has mostly affected steamship lines, 拖运运营商和多式联运运量——从洛杉矶出港的铁路多式联运运量下降了21.与去年同期相比，7%的低谷货车运输量没有受到影响. 或者，更确切地说，他们受到了一种有点令人惊讶的二级效应的刺激:恐慌性购买.

Consumers are buying dry and canned foods, bottled water, paper products, and disinfectants at higher rates than normal, 推高了美国众多货运市场的卡车货运需求. It’s unclear how long that spike will last, 或者，如果库存耗尽或被隔离的人减少购买，紧随其后的将是一个大萧条.

过去两年，企业总库存与销售之比一直稳定在1左右.4 months, a higher level than the previous five years. Companies tended to hold more inventory in the 1990s, 随着新的制造工艺和供应链管理理念的确立，公司逐渐精简. Recently, 随着资本成本下降，以及消费者对电子商务实现的预期要求企业提前推出更多产品，库存有回升的趋势.

Arrive致力于了解每个客户的优先事项，以及任何供应链中断的特定风险敞口, custom-tailoring solutions around specific requirements, Lien said.

“It’s about understanding what they value, whether it’s lead time or their customers’ experience or cost of capital,” Lien said. “There are different metrics that our customers are trying to optimize, and we want to, first, understand it, and second, support it.”

“We’ve dealt with anything and everything,” Lien said. “欧冠冠军足彩是一家强大的合同服务提供商，与可靠的运营商合作，制定客户的长期供应链战略.”

Lien表示，短期的供应链压力可能会刺激对团队能力的现货需求，机会主义的经纪人可以利用这些情况扩大利润, but Arrive isn’t built to do that.

对于供应链决策者来说，最大的不确定性之一是客户需求的预测. With a “natural event” such as the coronavirus, 供应链管理者正处于一个困难的境地:消费者的行为有可能使他们现有的系统紧张或崩溃. Some may find themselves not using previously-booked capacity, struggling to source capacity, or in the chaos failing to see the true costs of their operation.

“We’re nimble enough to provide as-needed services, whether that’s capacity or data analytics, 但欧冠冠军足彩希望货主不要把目光从球上移开，而要专注于他们的长期战略,” Lien said. “Pick your partners well, 因为有些人是机会主义者，而有些人则对如何在合作伙伴之间长期分配价值感兴趣.”

要了解更多欧冠冠军足彩战略合作伙伴部门的信息，请加入arrival Logistics和freightwwaves for a one-hour webinar on April 30 at 2 p.m. Eastern time. 本次网络研讨会提供了这些经验丰富的物流领导者对当今供应链趋势和挑战的见解. To register, please click here.

Photo credit: Jim Allen / FreightWaves, original article posted here: http://www.freightwaves.com/news/coronavirus-will-test-supply-chain-partnerships