月度市场更新

2021年4月

The Arrive 月度市场更新, 由到的见解创建, 一个报告是否分析来自多个来源的数据，包括但不限于 FreightWaves 声纳，DAT, FTR运输情报，摩根士丹利研究，美国银行内部数据， 商业杂志, 史蒂芬斯研究, 美国零售联合会和弗雷德经济数据从过去的一个月和去年同期.

欧冠冠军足彩知道市场数据对实时商业决策至关重要, 到达物流, 欧冠冠军足彩致力于为您提供更好地管理您的货运所需的数据.

Listen to this month’s Market Update!

执行概要

欧冠冠军足彩 will retain pricing power throughout the second quarter. This will lead to a continuation of the active spot market and high truck costs in the coming months due to a strong demand outlook and a weak outlook for capacity. The forecast for the back half of the year depends on carriers’ ability to add drivers and new equipment to levels sufficient enough to support volatile demand trends.

• Volatile demand trends persisted in March following a weather driven disruption in February that exposed a significant undersupply of capacity in the domestic freight market.

•DAT公司报告3月份现货销量环比增长22%，同比增长130%.

• Rates have not yet trended down despite load to truck ratio and tender rejection data indicating that conditions have slightly softened in early April.

• 欧冠冠军足彩 are demanding a premium on their committed capacity, resulting in contract rate increases of 26% 2美元.从1月份的每英里15美元到2美元.70 in the first week in April.

•卡车货运供应复苏的最大障碍仍然是半导体短缺, causing delays in new truck production, and ongoing driver availability issues.

• Although contract rates continue to climb, shippers that secure dedicated capacity on consistent, 高容量的车道, 在未来的一年里，他们会对自己的交通支出有最大的控制权吗.

•经济不断改善, restocking of depleted inventories and normal seasonal trends such as produce and summer peak seasons should continue to support healthy demand trends in the coming months.

• Consumer behavior patterns have begun to shift as spending on pent-up demand for travel and entertainment are enabled by the vaccine distribution, 而政府刺激计划能够增加耐用品支出.

卡车的需求

Freight volumes remained elevated throughout March following the surge in demand resulting from the winter storms that wreaked havoc across the south in February. Shipper routing guides failed as capacity networks were disrupted, 导致合同投标被拒绝的增加和大量货运涌入现货市场. Freight volumes have begun to ease in early April, following the end of quarter push, but overall demand remains strong. 港口积压的货物以进口的形式提供了源源不断的货物, 在整个大流行期间，低库存水平推动了需求的增长，但这种情况并没有好转.

FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), which measures contract freight volumes across all modes, was up nearly 38% year-over-year on March 31st. 重要的是要注意，OTVI包括接受和拒绝装载投标, so we must discount the index by the corresponding Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) to uncover the true measure of accepted tender volumes. If we were to apply this method to the year-over-year OTVI values, the increase in volume drops to 23%. This was a large increase from just eight days earlier, when the OTRI adjusted volume index was only up 8.2020年货运量同比增长4%，恐慌性购买达到峰值. 截至本月末，干货车和冷藏箱招标量指数也分别同比上涨了60%和88%以上, 这相当于两种模式的实际体积增加了42%和36%, 分别. Tender volumes for both dry van and reefer have fallen in early April, 与3月28日的峰值相比，OTRI调整后的干式货车销量下降了6%，冷藏箱销量下降了9%.

DAT报告说，3月份干式货车定点装卸点急剧增加，增加了22个.3%和129.以9%的速度增长. Spot volume growth slowed recently with only a 0.在本季度的最后一个完整的一周后，自上周以来增长了3%.

FTR and Truckstop’s Total All Mode Spot Volume Index is down 8.5% from the high in late February but is now up 257% year-over-year. After falling early in the month, the index climbed as it approached the end of the month and quarter, resulting in a relatively flat increase of just 0.5% from the start of the month.

Dry Van现货成交量指数(Dry Van Spot Volume Index)较2月底的高点下跌了38%，同比上涨了161%, 同期冷冻机现货成交量指数分别下跌26%和199%.

FTR’s Truck Loadings Index was up by 5.3% year-over-year in March after rising by 0.8% month-over-month from February. 这是自2017年12月以来，首次同比增幅超过5%. 2021年展望未来, year-over-year comparisons will be mostly irrelevant as the initial stages of the pandemic created highly volatile demand beginning in March 2020. 两年的趋势应该会给欧冠冠军足彩一个更好的月度增长指标. March 2021 truck loadings were up 2.8% from March 2019 truck loadings, an increase from 1.8% in the two-year period beginning February 2019.

关键

声纳股票:OTVI.美国

温柔的卷 是否代表了全国的合同量，并作为卡车装载需求的指标

声纳股票:奥特里.美国

温柔的拒绝 indicate the rate at which carriers reject loads they are contractually required to take and acts as an indicator of the balance between 卡车供应 and Demand

声纳股票:订单.CL8

新卡车订单 这是卡车运输业健康状况和承运人情绪的指标吗, 因为运输公司通常在需求和乐观情绪高涨时投资于新卡车.

声纳股票:IPRO.美国

工业生产 衡量工业部门的产出，包括采矿、制造业和公用事业.

声纳股票:CSTM.CHN美国

US Customs Maritime Import Shipments, China to the United States 该指标衡量的是进口货物通关进入美国的总数量.S. 来自中国.

传播速度

传播速度 measures the difference between the national average contract rate per mile and the national average spot rate per mile and is closely inversely correlated to movements in tender rejections and spot market volumes.

一周初请失业金人数

一周初请失业金人数 是否被用作一般经济中裁员速度的晴雨表.

失业率

失业率 失业人数是在积极寻找工作吗.

大卫·斯宾塞

Director of Business Intelligence

arriveinsights@gemmariceandauthorpoppet.com

卡车供应

2月份的冬季暴风雪之后，卡车的供应变得非常有限. 由于产能网络失去平衡，需求波动导致现货交易量激增. There wasn’t much of a change in the capacity environment throughout March as conditions remained tight leading up to the end of the month and quarter. 不过，4月初的数据显示，紧缩的峰值可能已经过去.

Sonar Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) measures the rate at which carriers are rejecting the freight that they are contractually required to take. 该指数倾向于跟随现货货运活动的变化——拒签率越高, 现货成交量越高. 3月28日，拒签率达到了28%的峰值，仅略低于历史最高纪录. The index currently sits at 25.75%. 这一降幅表明，第二季度初经济状况已有所缓和. This trend aligns with normal seasonality, which would indicate things should soften further, before starting to heat up again in mid to late May. 话虽这么说, conditions have been far from normal over the past year, so we recommend remaining vigilant as conditions could shift quickly.

The trends were consistent across the different equipment types as both dry van and reefer rejections have fallen from a peak in late March. Dry van tender rejections currently sit at 25.51%, and reefer tender rejections currently sit at 46.09%.

OTRI则攀升至28.31% late in March before falling to 25.4月初75%.

Van和Reefer的拒绝投标在本月末均呈上升趋势，但在第二季度初有所缓解.

The DAT Load to Truck Ratio measures the total number of loads posted compared to the total number of trucks posted on their loadboard. In March, the Dry Van Load to Truck Ratio fell to 5.78，环比下降23%，同比增长100%. The Reefer Load to Truck Ratio fell 12.3月21日，环比增长23%，同比增长117%.

The weekly load to truck ratios show increasing tightness over the prior three weeks for dry van and over the past four weeks for reefer equipment types, 由于月底和季度末，现货市场紧张加剧. 虽然没有显示, 欧冠冠军足彩预计，一旦截至4月11日的数据公布，卡车装载率将会下降. Demand has eased slightly early in the month, which should relieve some pressure on capacity in the marketplace.

摩根士丹利干货车运价指数(Morgan Stanley Dry Van Freight Index)是衡量相对供应的另一个指标. The higher the index, the tighter the market conditions. 该指数表明，在经历了2月份的产能大幅收紧后，形势已有所缓和. 这一预测表明，第二季度的情况应该与2018年类似, 4月和5月初情况有所缓和，之后才跌破第一季度的高点.

Truckstop/FTR市场需求指数(Truckstop/FTR Market Demand Index)衡量可用载重与可用载重的比率. In the first two sets of charts below, 对干式货车和冷藏箱货物，分别绘制了负载和卡车可用性图. Load availability decreased but remained up year-over-year, 而这两种设备的卡车可用性同比基本持平. 这些趋势表明，随着需求相对于供应下降，市场状况有所缓解. 总体市场需求指数(Market Demand Index)较上月高点下降21%，但同比增长538%，较2019年增长341%.

卡车利率

冬季暴风雪标志着第一季度初一直在下降的利率出现了一个转折点. 自2月中旬以来，货车和冷藏箱的现货价格均迅速上涨, 尽管数据显示市场状况走软，但这一趋势在4月初仍在继续. Dry van spot rates increased by 10.6% 2美元.40 per mile in February to $2.66年3月. On a year-over-year basis, dry van spot rates are up more than 42%. 合同价格深受天气因素影响，从2美元上涨了26%.从1月份的15美元涨到2美元.70 in the first week in April. 最近的加息导致目前的现货和合约利率都创下了历史新高.

The Contract-Spot Van 传播速度 has flipped back to negative $0.自7月以来，1月和2月首次出现上涨趋势，3月为每英里06美元.

2021年合同利率大幅上升表明，支撑需求激增和波动的能力不足. 冬季的暴风雪凸显出产能市场对需求变化的敏感程度, and shippers aren’t taking any chances, 希望以远高于以往水平的价格锁定新合同，以确保持续的产能. 很明显，他们愿意支付额外费用，以确保可预测的运输成本.

能力的前景

The outlook for capacity remains largely unchanged. Challenges in Class 8 truck production and the continued driver availability issues remain the biggest obstacles to a recovery in truckload supply. Until these issues are resolved, 欧冠冠军足彩预计需求波动将继续导致市场环境高度不稳定.

卡车装载量现在呈上升趋势，而司机供应却落后于上年同期. 这种持续的失衡突显出，产能相对于需求而言已变得如此匮乏. Volumes have continued to grow while driver supply falls. 下图显示，FTR预测卡车司机的压力将在2021年第二季度达到峰值，并在2022年之前保持较高水平. 这支持了以下观点:随着需求的涨落，产能限制将推动不可预测的利率环境. Despite contract rate increases, 欧冠冠军足彩仍建议托运人确保其一贯的专用运力, 高流量车道，以控制来年的交通支出.

FTR has revised their forecast for active truck utilization, the share of seated trucks actively engaged in freight hauling, to extend the period of 100% utilization by several months. Active truck utilization is now forecast to max out at 100% in June and remain there without easing until the fourth quarter. 这一调整是基于司机可用性的持续挑战和卡车负载需求的持续增长.

FTR报告称，新卡车订单在3月份继续保持强劲势头, with preliminary results indicating 40,800 new Class 8 trucks were ordered in the month. A 1.与2月的41415人相比，下降了5%，但与2020年3月的6854人相比，增长了495%. 这是连续第七个月新订单超过20个月,000 units required to sustain current levels of capacity. 通常, this would be a strong indicator that capacity is making a recovery, but shortages in the semiconductors needed to produce the microchips required to operate a truck are leading to delays in the delivery of new units. Delivery estimates are still being pushed out to 2022 for many models.

体积前景

The outlook for demand remains strong. FTR最新的卡车装载量预测显示，多数主要大宗商品类别的前景略趋强劲, resulting in an increased 2021 freight outlook. 预测显示每月卡车载货量增加，导致总载货量增加8.3% for the full year, up from 7.一个月前8%. 由于干式货车的前景保持不变，冷藏车和平板货车的装载量占预测增长的大部分.

港口的拥堵使得零售商很难增加库存, 由于销售速度超过新产品的到货速度，这加剧了持续补充库存的需求. This situation is only expected to worsen, particularly for clothing and department stores where sales are expected to rise now that additional stimulus money has hit the economy, 疫苗的持续推广应该会支持增加在实体店的支出. 销售额的增长速度可能会快于增加库存的速度, which would result in things getting worse before they get better. 在家具, 家居用品, 电子产品和家用电器, the situation has already gone from bad to worse. 库存下降了5%, and sales are up more than 6%, which has resulted in increasing inventory pressure. Lead time and planning is essential for shippers who rely on imported raw materials for production or imports to replenish inventories.

Economic Indicators and Consumer Sentiment

The Bank of America (BofA) consumer spending data provides visibility into the changing consumer behaviors and spending patterns. Positive impacts from the economic stimulus and the continued reopening of states were the key stories that emerged in the spending data in March. According to BofA Global Research, 经济刺激计划的受助人仍然比那些没有收到补助的人多花30%的钱, 但在收到第一批支票后仅仅7天，支出的增长就开始消退. 这一支出的增长绝对会支持卡车装载需求的持续健康增长.

We must note that beginning in March, the two-year change is more representative of the underlying trend due to the impact from the pandemic lockdowns a year ago. 例如, 信用卡消费总额同比增长67%，但与2019年相比仅增长了20%, for the 7-day period ending April 3rd.

When looking at monthly card spending by major category, 欧冠冠军足彩3月份消费者支出环比增长最快. This is evidence that as states continue to reopen, 欧冠冠军足彩应该会看到，被压抑的旅游和娱乐需求将推动新领域的支出增长. This shift in consumer behavior and spending should result in fluctuations in truckload demand that would require capacity networks to adjust to new demand pressures, potentially causing an extension in the current market disruption.

尽管欧冠冠军足彩在旅游和住宿方面的支出有所增加, there is still a long way to go in order to reach normal levels. 在耐用品方面，消费者支出仍趋向于远高于大流行前水平.

失业趋势继续令人担忧，整个3月基本持平. 最近一周首次申领失业救济金人数为74.4万人，持续申领失业救济金人数超过3人.每周七百万.

结论

Carrier pricing power was on full display in March as contract rates climbed at an unprecedented rate throughout the month. 2月中旬的冬季暴风雪暴露了支撑卡车运输需求的供应是多么的不足, 作为回应，欧冠冠军足彩要求对其承诺的运力支付额外费用.

对托运人来说，不幸的是，目前似乎还看不到多少缓解的迹象. 欧冠冠军足彩的研究表明，随着欧冠冠军足彩进入第二季度，需求将继续存在更大的上行风险. Spring produce season is just getting underway, 洛杉矶港口和长滩港口的积压应该会支持来自东部港口城市的健康需求, Gulf and West Coast ports through at least the third quarter, and the third round of government stimulus is generating increased economic activity and consumer spending that will result in an additional boost to truckload demand.

在供应方面, there is no indication that carriers will be able to add capacity quickly enough to support the surge in demand in the near term. Both driver availability and delays in new truck delivery timelines remain the biggest challenges to carriers’ ability to do so. 随着疫苗的推出，驾校能够增加吞吐量，驾校的可用性应得到改善, 但新卡车生产的延迟将限制产能的增加速度.

因此，欧冠冠军足彩对今年剩余时间的预测保持一致. 至少在第二季度，利率可能会保持在或接近历史最高水平, with the possibility of easing market conditions in the back half of the year as drivers and new equipment begin to enter the market.