2021年8月
每月市场更新, 由到的见解创建, 报告是否分析来自多个来源的数据, 包括但不限于 FreightWaves SONAR, DAT, FTR Transportation Intelligence, Morgan Stanley Research, Bank of America Internal Data, 商业杂志, 史蒂芬斯研究, National Retail Federation and FRED Economic Data from the past month as well as year-over-year.
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The severe gap between supply and demand became more clear in July as market fundamentals deviated from traditional patterns. A strong outlook for demand and a weak outlook for supply indicate further spot rate growth is likely through the remainder of the year. Elevated contract rates should provide improved tender acceptance rates for shippers, but those playing the spot market will likely incur volatile transportation costs.
•7月份全国货运量保持上升, 仅受可用容量的限制. 有多少卡车就有多少货物在运送.
• Declining tender rejections indicate elevated contract rates are resulting in higher levels of routing guide compliance through primary tender acceptance for shippers.
• Despite declining tender rejections, spot and contract rates continued to climb in July. This is a deviation from historical patterns and illustrates that improved routing guide compliance has not relieved any pressure in the spot market.
• National average dry van spot rates increased to a new all-time high of $2.每英里73. 冷藏现货汇率小幅下降，但仍维持在3美元.每英里11美元，略低于3美元.6月15个月创历史新高.
• The national average dry van contract rate per mile hit a new record high after its fourteenth straight increase, 价格是2美元.每英里84.
•货车供应复苏面临巨大障碍. Issues range from parts and labor shortages at truck and trailer OEMs to driver shortages and are unlikely to be resolved in the near term.
•预计需求将保持强劲, fueled by record imports and low inventories as we head into peak retail season.
整个月都有季节性放缓的迹象, 但卡车载货需求在2021年7月仍然居高不下. This was apparent across all modes of transport in both the spot and contract markets. 在典型的年份里, 欧冠冠军足彩预计第三季度初需求将有所缓解, 但今年是不同寻常的一年. 如果有运力的话，似乎所有的货物都会移动.
FreightWaves 声纳出港投标量指数(OTVI), 哪些衡量所有模式下的合同货运量, 7月底同比增长18%. It is important to note that OTVI includes both accepted and rejected load tenders, so we must discount the index by the corresponding Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) to uncover the true measure of accepted tender volumes. 如果欧冠冠军足彩将这一方法应用于年度OTVI值, 销量的增幅略有下降至17%. Tender rejections are very similar to where they were a year ago, explaining why the OTRI adjusted measure is so close to the actual shift in OTVI.
当深入到特定的设备类型时, the dry van and reefer tender volume indices were both up 11% year-over-year at the end of the month, equating to an 11% increase and a 2% decrease in actual volumes for the two modes, 分别. Tender rejections for dry van equipment are dead even year-over-year, resulting in no adjustment to the dry van tender volume growth measure.
DAT报告说，货车临时装载桩下降了17个.7月份环比增长1%，但仍增长了45个百分点.以8%的速度增长. This is a major pullback from June, when year-over-year spot load posts were up 101.5%. 随着2020年此时的负荷迅速增长, year-over-year comparisons begin to trending back to historically normal ranges. 周比周的现货量增长显示为0.3% increase, indicating steady volumes in the final week of July.
FTR and Truckstop’s Total All Mode Spot Volume Index finished the month up 20% from the low seen mid-month but still finished down roughly 6% month-over-month from June. The all- mode index remained up 66% year-over-year, down from 112% year-over-year at the end of June. This rapid decline in year-over-year comparisons aligns with other indices and is a result of the rapidly increasing volumes a year ago.
July market conditions brought strange results in our monitored metrics. The data indicates that shippers are seeing increased routing guide compliance on contract freight, 但现货市场的供应仍然越来越紧张. Typically, when there is improved compliance in the contract market, the spot market softens.
Sonar Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) measures the rate at which carriers are rejecting the freight they are contractually required to take. 该指数目前为20.85%，低于24.6月底45%. OTRI remains elevated significantly above equilibrium levels of 3%-8%, but the month-over-month improvement indicates improved routing guide compliance.
在这个货运周期, many shippers abandoned entering into new contractual agreements, afraid they will lock in rates while the market is at its peak. Other shippers believe coming up on rates and meeting carriers where rates are today will be the only way to prevent spot rates from continuing to climb. It is highly likely that we are seeing these improving trends in the tender rejection data as a result of these newly negotiated contract rates, 而不是由于产能条件的改善. 发货人 paying higher rates are starting to see improved coverage and primary tender acceptance.
自7月4日以来，OTRI一直在下降，下降了24个百分点.7月初45%到20.8月初88%.
Dry van and reefer tender rejections both followed a similar trend to the all-mode OTRI and currently sit at 21.92%和30.分别为88%.
The DAT Load to Truck Ratio measures the total number of loads compared to the total number of trucks posted on their load board. 7月，干货车装载比增加到5.81, up 4.每月5%，每年32%. 冷藏货物与卡车的比例增加到12.56, up 8.环比增长4%，同比增长70%.
The weekly load to truck ratios show conditions eased early in the month but tightened in the back half across all three equipment types. This increase in tightness late in the month is a deviation from the normal seasonal trend that typically results in softening conditions from July Fourth through at least mid-August. If load to truck ratios remain elevated, expect to see further upward pressure on spot rates.
The Morgan Stanley Dry Van Freight Index is another measure of relative supply. 指数越高，市场状况越紧张. 根据索引, 近来情况略有好转, but the data is two weeks in arrears and may not yet be capturing the tightening trend other indices have picked up on. 期待, normal seasonality indicates softening conditions in early August, but recent trends show the index will remain elevated through the remainder of the year, outperforming the straight-line forecast presented on the chart.
Dry van spot rates began to climb again in July, reaching a new all-time high of $2.每英里73美元，包括燃料. Early August results show rates continue to increase, and currently sit at $2.每英里79. Reefer spot rates saw their first decline since April, falling $0.7月是每英里04. DAT noted that spot rates typically decline rapidly following July Fourth, 但仍然保持着他们的力量. 尽管在八月初很低, reefer rates were actually on the rise in the last week of July. 平板房价格继续上涨，目前为3美元.每英里19美元，涨了0美元.每英里06美元，起价3美元.7月13日.
合约-现货运货汽车价差已增至0美元.04 per mile in June as contract rates set a new all-time record and spot rates pulled back slightly.
合同利率, 自2020年5月以来没有逐月下降, 7月达到历史新高2美元.每英里43美元，不包括燃料. Historically, there is a very strong correlation between contract tender rejections and spot rates. 当一个增加或减少时，另一个也会做同样的事情. 在过去几个月里，欧冠冠军足彩看到了相反的趋势. Despite decreasing tender rejection rates, spot rates continue to climb. The chart below illustrates this trend really taking hold throughout July.
Unprecedented demand levels and the high level of uncertainty shippers are facing when it comes to their transportation spend are major factors in driving this abnormal trend. Elevated contract rates are finally starting to result in increased tender acceptance, but capacity in the spot market is still stretched too thin for it to have made an impact. Recent trends indicate rates are not likely to see deflationary pressures in the near term.
这取决于你问的是哪家欧冠冠军足彩, you might get a different answer as to what the biggest challenge preventing them from being able to scale their operations and meet customer demands is. 在最近对Arrive核心运营商的调查中, we found three prevailing themes; drivers, 卡车和拖车.
No matter how many trucks or trailers you have, you need drivers. The situation is unlikely to improve in the near term as continued unemployment benefits and nationwide labor shortages limit driver availability.
欧冠冠军足彩 not experiencing a driver shortage are seeing more challenges with obtaining new or used Class 8 trucks or trailers. There is a lot of discussion around the impact semiconductor shortages have on truck production, and we are finding there are other parts shortages contributing to not only truck production, 还有拖车生产.
We sat down with Don Ake, VP of Commercial Vehicles at FTR, to learn more about these issues. “There are labor and parts shortages at OEM’s and at their suppliers,”Ake说, who also noted there could be as many as 25 unique parts that go into trailer manufacturing that OEM’s are seeing shortages of.
This insight is telling of the larger situation: this isn’t just a semiconductor issue. The same shortages retailers and manufacturers are experiencing when ordering raw materials and or finished goods from overseas are also spilling over into the transportation equipment market. 欧冠冠军足彩 are doing everything they can to stretch their resources, but it is clear that capacity remains substantially insufficient to keep up with surging demand, 这种情况不会很快得到改善.
Ake was hesitant to put a date on when OEM’s will return to full production capacity, but said that it would be highly unlikely to see the situation improve by the end of the year. 他还指出，一旦达到全面生产能力, the backlog of orders from 2021 to date would take several months to work through at a minimum just to catch up.
There are too many variables to accurately put a date on when we will finally see capacity scale to meet demand, but these perspectives show we could be looking at supply shortages lasting for at least another year or more.
新卡车的交货时间从10个增加.5月至11月共3个月.6月3个月.
FTR对卡车利用率的预测, the share of seated trucks actively engaged in freight hauling, shows active truck utilization remaining at 99% or higher through the remainder of 2021 and above 95% through 2022. For a point of reference, the average active truck utilization over the past ten years is 91%. FTR noted one risk to this forecast is if unemployment benefits are sharply reduced, higher rates of labor participation could mean capacity will return more quickly than expected.
FTR reports that new truck orders continued their upward trend in July, 初步结果显示是25,本月订购了800辆新的8级卡车.8% increase from 23,720 in June, and a 34% increase from 19,27月13日 2020. This is now the eleventh straight month with new orders above the 20,维持目前的产能水平需要000个单位. FTR noted they expect an order surge when manufacturers start booking for 2022, 但他表示，OEM尚未表明何时会实现这一目标.
需求前景仍然非常强劲. We have seen record freight volumes for months, and there is no immediate end in sight. The image below is cut from an American Shipper interview with Gene Seroka, 洛杉矶港的执行董事. 这张照片显示停泊着超过25艘集装箱船, 等待卸货, with 23 more ships scheduled to arrive over the next three days. When asked about what can be done to catch up with the incredible import volumes coming in, he referenced all the throughput issues that exist downstream from the backlog at the ports that make it more difficult to just “work through” the issues.
这里已经有大量的货物了, just sitting in a warehouse or rail yard waiting to be moved to its final destination. Seroka noted that Union Pacific had 25 miles worth of trains and BNSF had 22 miles of trains, 都坐在朱丽叶外面, IL铁路设施.
It is going to take time to work through all of these backlogs, 尤其是即将到来的零售旺季. Inventory shortages will need to build back up, once the backlogs are cleared.
FTR’s latest truck loadings forecast shows a slightly weaker outlook, with a sharply improved forecast for chemicals driving tanker loadings to be the only segment seeing a higher forecast for 2021 than last month’s forecast. In the dry van sector, the forecast shows a total truck loadings increase of 7.4%，低于上年同期的8%.3%一个月前. 冷藏和平板装载预计都将达到4.2021年卡车装载量增长1%. While reefer loadings forecasts are essentially unchanged, flatbed loadings forecast are down from 4.上月的9%.
尽管经济经历了几个月的疲软数据, year-over-year comparisons remain positive and the outlook for continued growth remains strong as the average American consumer is in a solid position as a result of government stimulus, 改善就业机会和提高工资.
The Bank of America (BofA) consumer spending data provides visibility into changing consumer behaviors and spending patterns. 信用卡消费总额上升了12个百分点.7%的年增长率和10.与2019年相比，截至7月31日的7天期间为0%. These results indicate consumer spending is still significantly elevated through July in 2021.
One of the main factors BofA is watching as it relates to spending is the impact of expiring unemployment insurance benefits. They monitored spending for those who had received benefits vs. those who had not, in states where the benefits were allowed to expire. 几周后, spending from those previously receiving benefits began to lag further behind those who had not received benefits. This data supports the idea that if UI benefits are allowed to expire, we could see labor shortage issues at least partially resolved as individuals return to the workforce.
The unemployment trends continued to gradually improve in July. 最近一周的首次申领人数为385人,000, 与上个月大致持平, 而持续索赔则下降到2.300万.上个月每周有三百万.
Market dynamics between spot rates and contract tender rejections in July helped expose how large the gap is between truckload supply and demand. Easing freight volumes and declining tender rejections are normally associated with declining spot rates, 而是, 即期利率攀升至历史新高.
8月以来，情况一直稳定, but early spot rate reports indicate the increasing rate trend will continue. This leaves little hope of seeing deflationary rate conditions by the end of the year, as the forecast for demand remains strong heading into peak retail season in the fourth quarter. 发货人 with consistent and predictable freight volumes should lock in contract rates with reliable and trustworthy transportation providers to limit spot cost volatility in the fourth quarter.
There are still too many unknowns to forecast when capacity will catch up with demand, but low inventories and backlogs of freight across the country should result in elevated demand through the first quarter of 2022 at the earliest. Early second quarter is the soonest we believe rates will begin to ease. It is hard to imagine these conditions lasting another year, but all signs point in that direction.
Arrive Logistics has acquired the cross-border business of Forager. Forager is a cross-border technology company focused on Mexico and Canadian cross-border freight.
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