月度市场更新

2021年7月

每月市场更新, 由到的见解创建, 报告是否分析来自多个来源的数据, 包括但不限于 FreightWaves 声纳，DAT, FTR运输情报，摩根士丹利研究，美国银行内部数据， 商业杂志, 史蒂芬斯研究, 美国零售联合会和弗雷德经济数据从过去的一个月和去年同期.  

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执行概要

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Transportation and consumer spending trends are following familiar cycles allowing a higher level of accuracy in forecasting. 随着消费者支出恢复到疫情前的行为，并转向服务和旅游, 运输需求变得更加可预测. Surges in demand will likely cause increased rate volatility and constrained capacity throughout the remainder of the year.

• Spot volumes picked up late in June as demand surged and tender rejections increased due to the summer peak season.

• Tender rejections have been declining following the Fourth of July, indicating softening market conditions in line with seasonal expectations.

•平板设备的每周DAT负载与卡车的比率已经连续四周下降, 指示快速软化条件. 因为平板电脑市场的机会越来越少, we expect some capacity to shift to the dry van and reefer markets.

• National average dry van and reefer spot rates were flat month-over-month at $2.69年,3美元.在六月，每英里分别是10英里.

• The national average dry van contract rate per mile has also hit a new record high after its fourteenth straight increase, 价格是2美元.每英里77.

•卡车货运供应复苏的最大障碍仍然是半导体短缺, causing delays in new truck production and ongoing driver availability issues.

•过去三个月, 服务业支出的增长超过了耐用品支出负增长的300%. 很明显，美国人正在恢复正常的活动，如旅游和娱乐.

• Recent market trends indicate that we can now more confidently rely on historical seasonality to forecast spot market activity and rate movements.

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卡车的需求

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Demand in June 2021 was largely dependent on the equipment type in question. 用于货车和冷藏设备类型, 货运量符合正常的季节规律, 在这个月末和这个季度的末尾都在增加. 在平板电脑领域，需求的下降导致了销量的下降和市场状况的缓解.

FreightWaves 声纳出港投标量指数(OTVI), 哪些衡量所有模式下的合同货运量, 6月底同比增长了25%. It is important to note that OTVI includes both accepted and rejected load tenders, so we must discount the index by the corresponding Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) to uncover the true measure of accepted tender volumes. If we were to apply this method to the year-over-year OTVI values, 销售量的增长下降到10%. 上个月，招标数量同比增长53%，考虑拒收情况时增长20%. The decrease in year-over-year comparisons is not a result of a month-over-month decline, but is a result of rapidly increasing volumes last year at this time.

当深入到特定的设备类型时, 欧冠冠军足彩发现，截至本月末，干货车和冷藏箱招标量指数同比分别为21%和26%, which equated to a 7% increase and a 2% decrease in actual volumes for the two modes, 分别.

DAT报告称，6月份干货车现货装载量环比下降了6%，但仍保持了101个月的增长.以5%的速度增长. 周比周的现货销量增长显示9.下降7%, 但这是, 在某种程度上, due to there being one less business day than usual due to Independence Day.

FTR and Truckstop’s Total All Mode Spot Volume Index does the best job at isolating the impact from different equipment types due to the increased allocation of flatbed freight in the data. 在最近的一周, total load postings were down more than 9% despite increases in load postings for both dry van and reefer equipment types. 平板负载下降15.超过6%的收益抵消了0.干货车3%，2.1%,冷藏. 尽管最近有所下降, the total all mode index is still indicating load postings are up 112% year-over-year.

FTR的卡车装载指数在上升0.从五月份开始，每月增长6%. The pandemic lockdowns of 2020 are contributing to the favorable year-over-year comparisons, 但月度环比增长表明，所有模式的总销量近来相对稳定. We are continuing to pay more attention to two-year growth trends in place of year-over-year comparisons due to the pandemic effect in 2020. 2021年6月卡车装载量增加3.卡车装载量较2019年6月的4%略有下降.自2019年5月起的两年期间内为3%.

 

 

关键

声纳股票:OTVI.美国

温柔的卷 是否代表了全国的合同量，并作为卡车装载需求的指标

声纳股票:奥特里.美国

温柔的拒绝 indicate the rate at which carriers reject loads they are contractually required to take and acts as an indicator of the balance between 卡车供应 and Demand

声纳股票:订单.CL8

新卡车订单 is an indicator of the trucking industry’s health and carrier sentiment, as carriers typically invest in new trucks when demand and optimism are high.

声纳股票:IPRO.美国

工业生产 measures the output of the industrial sector, including mining, manufacturing and utilities.

声纳股票:CSTM.CHN美国

US Customs Maritime Import Shipments, China to the United States measures the total number of import shipments being cleared for entry to the U.S. 来自中国.

传播速度

传播速度 measures the difference between the national average contract rate per mile and the national average spot rate per mile and is closely inversely correlated to movements in tender rejections and spot market volumes.

一周初请失业金人数

一周初请失业金人数 are used as a barometer for the pace of layoffs in the general economy.

失业率

失业率 is the number of people who are unemployed that are actively seeking work.

大卫·斯宾塞

商业情报总监

arriveinsights@gemmariceandauthorpoppet.com

OTRI在6月中下旬上升，随后下降至24.7月初45%. Dry van and reefer tender rejections have both followed a similar trend to the all-mode OTRI and currently sit at 26.02%, 33.分别为79%.

The DAT Load to Truck Ratio measures the total number of loads compared to the total number of trucks posted on their load board. 6月，货车干负荷比下降到5.56, 9.2个月环比增长了57个月.以8%的速度增长. 冷藏货物与卡车的比率下降到11.59岁,10.月环比增长6%，但同比增长112%.

The weekly load to truck ratios show that conditions tightened throughout June and peaked in the week leading up to the Fourth of July for dry van and reefer equipment types. 平板市场状况, 然而, 已经迅速软化, 过去四周下跌了32%. 如果正常的季节性趋势保持下去, we should expect load to truck ratios to fall as July progresses. This would result in softer market conditions and downward pressure on spot rates.

The Morgan Stanley Dry Van Freight Index is another measure of relative supply. 指数越高，市场状况越紧张. 根据该指数，最近情况有所收紧. This trend is in line with what we have seen across the other measures of relative supply. 展望未来，正常的季节性走势将表明，从现在到8月中旬，形势将趋于缓和. Morgan Stanley’s straight-line forecast suggests conditions will reverse their recent trend and begin to settle throughout the back half of the year.

合约-现货运货汽车价差已增至0美元.6月，合同费率创下历史新高，现货费率小幅回落，为每英里0.04美元.

合同利率已经连续上升了13个月. Trends in July should be very telling of what to expect for the remainder of the year. A forecast based on normal seasonal trends would indicate that we have passed the peak for spot rates and should start to see rates decline in the back half of the month. 如果这样的话, we believe that we are finally back to being able to rely on seasonal rate pressures in the way we did prior to the pandemic. If rates continue to increase, we expect the spot rates to peak in the fourth quarter.

和任何预测一样, there are forces outside our control that introduce risk in both directions, 但是考虑到目前的情况, 欧冠冠军足彩认为即期汇率的上行风险更大. 如果发生另一个重大容量事件, 比如一场大型飓风登陆, a large disruption could reignite the inflationary cycle and push rates even higher, 就像欧冠冠军足彩在2月中旬看到的冬季暴风雪一样. 发货人 should have contingency plans in place to manage constrained capacity in the event a widespread disruption occurs.

Morgan Stanley Sentiment Survey data indicates a steady 80% point spread between respondents who stated capacity was tight and those that indicated capacity was abundant.

能够找到司机的运输公司仍然面临着新卡车订单交付延迟的挑战. 新卡车的交货时间略有提高至10个.从5月的11个月下降到3个月.4月7日. 造成这些延误的最大因素是oem在半导体采购方面持续短缺.

FTR对卡车利用率的预测, 积极从事货运的坐式卡车所占的份额, 由于对驱动能力和生产率的假设进行了调整，短期内是否会略微强劲. 更新后的预测显示，第二季度活跃卡车利用率将达到100%, remaining there throughout Q3 and only pulling back slightly to 99% in Q4. FTR指出，这一预测的一个风险是，如果失业救济大幅减少, 更高的劳动参与率可能意味着产能恢复的速度将快于预期.

FTR reports that new truck orders picked back up slightly in June, 初步结果显示是26,本月订购了700辆新的8级卡车——一辆24.5% increase from 21,454 in May, and a 77% increase from 15,104 in June 2020. This is now the tenth straight month with new orders above the 20,维持目前的产能水平需要000个单位. FTR指出，当制造商最早于本月开始预订2022年的订单时，他们预计订单将激增.

There are several indicators that the economy will maintain its strength over the next several months as the country continues to reopen. 尽管不断上涨的价格可能会限制未来的增长, 住房活动仍较上年同期增长50%以上. 另外, industrial production and manufacturing are both up month-over-month and year-over-year, 汽车产量增长了近10%.

There is a strong relationship between the volume of Chinese imports to the U.S. 以及公路货运量. 上个月, 中国盐田港的新冠肺炎疫情导致该港口部分关闭. 该港口是世界第三大门户之一，当时的运力为30%. The chart below shows the impact to inbound freight volumes from the Port of Yantian, 6月初出现了明显的下降. 如果这种情况持续下去, it would certainly have been detrimental to truckload demand here in the states. 幸运的是, the breakout was contained relatively quickly and operations have resumed at 100% capacity.

当观察每月信用卡消费的主要类别, 6月份，欧冠冠军足彩和住宿行业的消费者支出环比增长最快(表5)。. Airline spending continues to grow but remains down when considering the growth over the prior two years (Exhibit 6). 住宿支出终于开始好转，上升了3个百分点.8%从2019年.

This increase in spending on 服务 is consistent with a larger trend we have seen play out sequentially over the past three months. 下图说明了耐用品损益对信用卡消费总额的影响. 服务. 在过去三个月里, the impact to total spending from durable goods has been negative, 这意味着代表性项目的支出正在放缓. 在服务, 今年每个月的影响都是积极的, 这意味着服务支出在增加. 在过去三个月里, 服务业支出的增长超过了耐用品支出负增长的300%. 很明显，美国人正在恢复正常的活动，如旅游和娱乐. 这种消费者行为和支出的转变，如果持续下去，可能有助于减少卡车载重需求. 需求的下降不太可能足以带来一个均衡的市场, but it could certainly help ease the burden on carriers looking to add capacity.

The unemployment trends have continued their gradual improvement in June. 最近一周首次申请失业救济的人数为373人,000, 下3,000从上个月开始, 持续索赔人数相对持平于3人.每周三百万. 总就业人数继续上升, up 559,五月份增加了770,3月和266,000年4月. The largest gains were again seen in the leisure and hospitality sector, 这增加了292,5月新增就业岗位, 以下增加331,4月为000美元，4月为206美元,000年3月.