月度市场更新

2021年3月

每月市场更新, 由到的见解创建, is a report that analyzes data from multiple sources including but not limited to FreightWaves 声纳，DAT, FTR运输情报，摩根士丹利研究，美国银行内部数据， 商业杂志, 史蒂芬斯研究, 美国零售联合会和弗雷德经济数据从过去的一个月和去年同期.

We know that market data is vital to making real-time business decisions, 到达物流, we are committed to giving you the data you need to better manage your freight.

执行概要

欧冠冠军足彩的研究表明，由于需求前景改善和产能前景下降，未来几个月现货市场活跃和卡车成本高企的可能性增加. 下半年的前景取决于运营商是否有能力增加足够多的驱动和新设备，以应对不稳定的需求趋势.

严酷的冬季天气导致2月份需求波动，暴露出国内货运市场供应能力严重不足.

DAT报道43.8%和161.9% year-over-year growth in spot volumes in February, a sign that this year’s trends deviated from normal seasonality.

In February, the DAT Dry Van Load to Truck Ratio increased to 7.54, an increase of 77% month-over-month, and 310% year-over-year. The Reefer Load to Truck Ratio also rose rapidly to 15.91, an increase of 95% month-over-month and 312% year-over-year.

较高的合同费率几乎不能保护市场免受长期中断的影响. 不含燃料的即期汇率上涨了0美元.1月起每英里27英里. 至3月.

卡车供应恢复的最大障碍是导致8级卡车生产延迟的半导体短缺和持续的驱动器可用性问题.

发货人 that can secure dedicated capacity on consistent, 高容量的车道, are going to have the greatest control over their transportation spend in the coming year.

经济的改善和正常的季节性趋势，如农产品和夏季旺季，应会继续支持未来几个月健康的需求趋势.

疫苗接种后的消费模式表明，被压抑的旅游和娱乐需求将导致消费群体的转变, 而需求的波动可能会在第二季度末进一步扰乱货运市场.

卡车的需求

不一致的需求趋势继续是导致2月货运市场波动的主要原因. 在南方各州肆虐的冬季暴风雪是一个明显的转折点，从今年早些时候的通缩状况转变为欧冠冠军足彩在过去几周看到的通胀趋势. February is normally the slowest month of the year for freight, but several factors contributed to the unusual pattern seen this year. The backlog at the ports has provided a steady stream of volume in the form of imports, 冬季的暴风雪引发了对恢复工作和补充空货架的需求激增. There have been no signs of a slowdown throughout the first week of March, as surging demand continues to add stress to the already capacity constrained market.

FreightWaves 声纳出港投标量指数(OTVI), which measures contract freight volumes across all modes, was up nearly 60% year-over-year on February 28th. It is important to note that OTVI includes both accepted and rejected load tenders, 因此，欧冠冠军足彩必须用相应的外标拒收指数(OTRI)对该指数进行折现，以揭示接受投标量的真实衡量标准. If we were to apply this method to the year-over-year OTVI values, 增加量下降到22.9%. This was a huge increase from just ten days earlier, when the OTRI adjusted volume index was only up 3.9% year-over-year when volumes dipped due to the storm related shut downs. 截至本月末，Dry Van和Reefer投标量指数也分别同比上涨了59%和84%, 只等于23.1%和8.5% increases in actual volumes for the two modes, 分别. Dry Van和Reefer的投标量在2月份经历了类似的波动后，在3月初仍保持上升.

DAT报告说，二月份干式货车的现货装载数量显著增加，增加了43个.8% month-over-month and climbing to a 162% year-over-year. Spot volumes continued to climb throughout the month as the market tightened, 由于风暴导致需求放缓，当月最后一周需求激增，增幅达到24%.

FTR and Truckstop’s Total All Mode Spot Volume Index is up 50.0% from the high in January and 157% year-over-year. 指数呈指数增长, 上升了2%, 4%, 第一到第四周分别为14%和25%, 分别. 这种增长比与2020年大流行相关的增长更为显著. 这一模式与DAT 2月现货数据显示的趋势一致，并为本月最后一周的影响提供了进一步证据. The Dry Van Spot Volume Index is up 88% month-over-month and 296% year-over-year, 2月份，冷藏量指数(Reefer Spot Volume Index)环比增长83%，同比增长218%.

FTR’s Truck Loadings Index was up by just 1.0% year-over-year in February after rising by 0.1月份环比增长7%. In 2020, the Truck Loadings Index fell by -0.6% month-over-month in the same time period, a sign that this year’s trends deviated from normal seasonality.

关键

声纳股票:OTVI.美国

温柔的卷 是否代表了全国的合同量，并作为卡车装载需求的指标

声纳股票:奥特里.美国

温柔的拒绝 表明承运人拒绝载货的比率，他们被合同要求采取，并作为一个指标之间的卡车载货供求平衡

声纳股票:订单.CL8

新卡车订单 is an indicator of the trucking industry’s health and carrier sentiment, as carriers typically invest in new trucks when demand and optimism are high.

声纳股票:IPRO.美国

工业生产 measures the output of the industrial sector, including mining, manufacturing and utilities.

声纳股票:CSTM.CHN美国

US Customs Maritime Import Shipments, China to the United States measures the total number of import shipments being cleared for entry to the U.S. 来自中国.

传播速度

传播速度 衡量全国平均每英里合同费率与全国平均每英里即期费率之间的差异，并与拒绝投标和现货市场成交量的变动密切相关.

一周初请失业金人数

一周初请失业金人数 are used as a barometer for the pace of layoffs in the general economy.

失业率

失业率 is the number of people who are unemployed that are actively seeking work.

大卫·斯宾塞

商业情报总监

arriveinsights@gemmariceandauthorpoppet.com

卡车供应

Truckload supply became extremely constrained in February. 需求波动导致现货交易量激增，因为冬季的暴风雪使运力网络失去平衡. Inbound volumes to some of the areas hit hardest in TX, LA, 基于“增大化现实”技术和孟菲斯, TN have all increased relative to the volumes outbound from these locations. 这一趋势导致在这些地区堆积的卡车数量超过了运出的货物数量. 这与大流行封锁期间不同托运人行业的货运量差异类似. In a market where capacity is in delicate balance, a disruption of this magnitude can really shake things up.

声纳出站投标拒绝指数(OTRI)衡量的是承运人拒绝接受合同要求的货物的比率. 该指数倾向于跟随现货货运活动的变化——拒签率越高, 现货成交量越高. 2月份的趋势与DAT和Truckstop报告的现货交易量波动一致, 每个月的后半个月都是高峰. 被拒绝的投标数量低至20份.75% on February 9th but climbed to a peak of 27.2月22日达到87%.该指数目前为27.40%, an increase of more than 370% year-over-year.

The trends were consistent across the different equipment types. Dry van tender rejections currently sit at 27.13%，同比增长约375%. Reefer tender rejections currently sit at 47.71%，同比增长328%.

奥特里则攀升至27.在2月底下降到20之后，有87%.75%，自去年8月以来从未出现过.

Van和Reefer招标拒收均在月底出现，这是由于冬季风暴造成的中断.

DAT装载与载重比衡量的是装载的总数量与载重板上载重的总数量的比较. In February, the Dry Van Load to Truck Ratio increased rapidly to 7.54, an increase of 77% month-over-month, and an increase of 310% year-over-year. The Reefer Load to Truck Ratio also rose rapidly to 15.91 in February, an increase of 95% month-over-month and 312% year-over-year.

The weekly load to truck ratios increased throughout the month, 这进一步证明，随着本月接近尾声，由于严重的冬季风暴，现货市场紧张加剧. Not only is it abnormal for load to truck ratios to rise in February, but these ratios are elevated higher than at any point in 2018. All indications are pointing to this trend continuing in至3月. Demand is expected to continue to trend at a high level, putting continuous pressure on the available capacity in the marketplace.

Van and Reefer L/T Ratios eased throughout the month before spiking in the final week.

The Morgan Stanley Dry Van Freight Index is another measure of relative supply. The higher the index, the tighter the market conditions. The index indicates dramatic tightening of capacity in February, 这是自2018年1月ELD授权生效以来的最高水平. 他们的预测表明，市场紧张程度将在6月达到峰值，然后在今年晚些时候降温. 这一预测是乐观的，似乎表明从现在到年底，经济增长相对平稳, after undergoing volatile swings in conditions throughout.

Truckstop/FTR市场需求指数(Truckstop/FTR Market Demand Index)衡量可用载重与可用载重的比率. 在下面的前两组图表中, load and truck availability are plotted separately for both dry van and reefer freight. 负载增加可用性, 剩下了同比, 而卡车的可用性下降，这两种类型的设备同比仍在下降. 这种失衡表明，由于需求仍高于供应，市场状况将进一步趋紧. The total Market Demand Index was up 66% month-over-month and 376% year-over-year.

卡车利率

1月份，由于拒绝投标和现货活动在月末有所回升，货车和冷藏箱现货价格迅速上升. 干货车的现货率增加了1.7% 2美元.从1月份的每英里36美元降至2美元.2月份40. This is misleading as rates are up more than 12%, or $0.每英里33, 从一月到三月的第一周, a sign of just how fast rates climbed late in the month. Contract rates have continued to climb as well, growing by another $0.18 per mile since January, which brings the total increase to 30% from $1.97 to $2.自2020年5月以来共56起.

干式货车每英里的运费是2美元.69 for the first week of March is up by 44% year-over-year. This is an all-time high for truckload rates, $0.23 per mile higher than the previous all time high of $2.2020年12月46.

The Contract-Spot Van 传播速度 has flipped back to negative $0.今年3月，每英里13美元，此前一度为0美元.1月和2月每英里0.02美元.

较高的合同费率几乎不能保护市场免受长期中断的影响. 现货价格飙升, 随着产能不足以支撑需求的激增和波动，合约利率进一步提高. 这是冬季风暴破坏的直接结果，也证明了供需之间的平衡是多么的敏感.

能力的前景

Capacity is the key to tilting the market back in the shippers’ favor. It has become clear that even with contract rates at an all-time high, demand continues to drive the ebbs and flows in the spot market. 8级卡车生产的挑战和持续的司机可用性问题仍然是卡车货运供应复苏的最大障碍. 直到这些问题得到解决, we expect to see demand volatility result in highly unstable market conditions.

司机供应和卡车载货需求之间的差距日益扩大，导致司机可用性的压力越来越大. 下图显示，FTR预测卡车司机的压力将在2021年第二季度达到峰值，并在2022年之前保持较高水平. 这支持了产能限制将继续推动不可预测的利率环境的观点. 发货人 that have the ability to secure dedicated capacity on consistent, 高容量的车道, are going to have the greatest control over their transportation spend in the coming year.

活跃的卡车利用率, the share of seated trucks actively engaged in freight hauling, is now forecast to max out at 100% in June and July, 在第三季度保持在98%, before declining back to a respectable 97% through 2022. 这一预测已得到加强，原因是人们对货运量将保持强劲的预期有所改善，司机运力吃紧的问题只得到最小程度的缓解.

FTR is reporting that new truck orders increased to 43,800 units in February, up 11.9% month-over-month and 245% year-over-year. This would be the sixth straight month with new orders coming in above the 20,000 units required to sustain current levels of capacity. 通常, this would be a strong indicator that capacity was making a recovery, 但生产卡车运行所需的微芯片所需的半导体出现短缺，导致新芯片的交付延迟. Delivery estimates are now being pushed out to 2022 for many models.

体积前景

需求前景依然强劲. 随着春耕季节的到来，正常的季节趋势应该会导致需求的增加. Housing starts are at the highest levels seen since 2006, 这意味着与住房建设相关的建筑材料和商品的数量应该是健康的. 长期, 受压抑的需求可能会给经济带来强劲的提振，因为疫苗接种将继续让人们恢复正常生活.

Industrial production continues to see modest gains, but remains down 1.以8%的速度增长. 尽管小的改进, 未来几个月，随着疫苗的分发，与病毒相关的封锁和劳动力短缺得到缓解，仍有增长空间.

FTR’s latest truck loadings forecast shows stronger outlooks in most major commodity groups, resulting in a significantly stronger 2021 freight outlook. 预测显示，每月卡车载货量持续增加，导致总载货量增加7.8%，高于上年同期的6%.一个月前2%.

Inventory restocking is expected to be a major contributor to truckload demand in 2021. 2020年，超过2200万20英尺当量单位的零售进口创下了新的年度纪录, and with the current backlog of ships at the ports, we expect imports to remain strong well into the third quarter or longer. 依赖进口原材料生产或进口补充库存的托运人应设法进行调整. 采取步骤简化产品提供, building more lead time into ordering patterns, 甚至寻找近岸或岸上的替代品都是解决港口拥堵问题的选择.

今年中国新年(CNY)的影响很小，因为由于港口积压和有限的吞吐量，生产放缓被掩盖了. Imports typically fall off in late February but have remained consistent, providing a steady stream of inbound freight. This should support healthy outbound Los Angeles volumes through the end of 2021.

经济指标和消费心理

美国银行(Bank of America)的消费者支出数据为不断变化的消费者行为和支出模式提供了可见性. There were several stories that emerged in the spending data in February.

在高水平上, consumer spending continued to trend at positive year-over-year growth throughout February. Total card spending is up 7% year-over-year for the 7-day period ending February 27th. 欧冠冠军足彩继续看到耐用品和在线零售支出同比强劲增长，旅游等服务支出下降, entertainment and spending at brick and mortar stores. If spending continues to see year-over-year growth, that would support continued economic growth and healthy truckload demand.

冬季暴风雪的影响导致受影响最严重地区的支出增加. 在德克萨斯、洛杉矶、OK、MS、AR和TN的总支出同比下降到-25%，之后增加到+6.5% by the end of the month and remains elevated above states that were not impacted. 这些州的支出增加，导致这些地区的卡车装载需求增加. If spending remains elevated in these areas due to a prolonged recovery, it could be enough to keep supply and demand imbalanced, leading to sustained capacity constraints and an active spot market.

最后，欧冠冠军足彩已经开始了解疫苗接种后的支出行为会是什么样子. Spending trends among traditionalists, which are aged 73-92, have increased from the time U.S. vaccinations began on those above the age of 65. Spending on airfare, in particular, surged for this group. This provides some evidence that once vaccinations become more widespread, we could see another shift in the consumer basket. It is unknown whether this would have a positive or negative effect on truckload demand, but as we have seen with other trends over the past year, any meaningful change in demand is likely to have a tightening effect on capacity. 欧冠冠军足彩认为，被压抑的旅游和娱乐需求将导致进一步的产能中断, 即使总需求保持不变, as carrier networks will be forced to rebalance themselves again.

Although a federal stimulus bill is being negotiated in Congress, there is no real update on when that bill might go into effect. Time is of the essence, however, as an estimated 11.如果没有新的法案通过，4百万工人将在3月中旬到4月中旬之间失去失业救济. 欧冠冠军足彩将密切关注此事, as any major stimulus would likely have a positive effect on truckload demand.

The unemployment trends continue to be concerning, 整个2月份仅略有改善，延续了过去几个季度的平稳趋势. 最近一周首次申领失业救济金人数为74.5万人，持续申领失业救济金人数超过4人.每周200万.

结论

严酷的冬季天气导致需求波动，暴露出国内货运市场供应能力严重不足. The market did find some balance early in the first quarter, as contract rates settled in at new all-time highs, but these rates did little to protect from a sustained increase in spot activity. 越来越明显的是，产能正难以跟上长期需求激增的步伐.

需求, 欧冠冠军足彩的研究表明，当欧冠冠军足彩期待即将到来的季节性上涨时，还有更多的上行空间, 额外的刺激, and the release of pent up demand as the vaccine continues to be distributed to the masses.

For supply, there is not as much to be optimistic about. 是的, drivers will likely return as they are vaccinated and as driver schools increase throughput, but will there be trucks available to seat them in? Truck utilization is forecast to hit 100% in June and July. Any relief would need to come in the form of new trucks. 新的8级卡车订单一直在激增, but production delays mean that trucks ordered today may not be delivered until early 2022.

Although our long term forecast for rates in 2021 remains consistent, 供需前景表明，随着需求压力容量网络出现波动，供应将进一步中断. Rates will likely remain at or near all-time highs through at least the second quarter, 随着新设备开始进入市场，下半年市场环境可能会走软.