The new competitive landscape of U.S. 货运经纪业务已发展多年,但现在已成为华尔街最喜欢的主题之一.

美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)运输业分析师Ken Hoexter周二发表了一份题为《欧冠冠军足彩》的客户报告, Part I: Tech disruption & pricing wars shift landscape.” Hoexter focuses on the core metrics of growth, margins and tech adoption, highlighting the mobile app horse race. As Hoexter points out, it’s one thing to get carriers to download an app, 但要在利润率不断缩小的情况下提高足够的运营效率以增加利润,则完全是另一回事.

Hoexter写道:“经纪行业近期面临的主要破坏性威胁是定价。. 资金充足的新进入者正利用定价机制,以微薄或负利润率经营,扩大规模. This behavior risks triggering a race to the bottom, as established brokers, long accustomed to mid-to upper-teens net revenue margins, and mid-single digit operating margins, now see those profits at risk.”

The freight brokerage game is changing faster than ever. Uber Freight is now operating in five countries and building out a massive brokerage floor in Chicago. Convoy raised $400 million at a valuation of $2.75 billion. GlobalTranz和Nolan transport Group最近都进入了10亿美元的收入俱乐部. Mode Transportation在2019年最大的私募股权支持的合并中收购了SunTeckTTS. Redwood Logistics closed the Strive and LTX deals, launched Connect 2.0, and partnered with on a new auction concept, Book it Now. Transplace made end-to-end visibility a platform-wide standard, free of charge.

On the other end of the scale, 规模较小的券商正在采取各种策略,以实现比行业更快的增长和抢占市场份额. Chattanooga, Tennessee’s Trident Transport, pursuing a tried-and-true strategy, opened new branches in Tampa, Florida, and Minneapolis. Meanwhile, Chicago’s Edge Logistics launched a digital freight-matching platform for its customers and carriers.

新兴的风险资本支持的创业公司,如Emerge和Turvo,正在普及最新的技术. Specialty services like near-shore staffing and asset-based lenders are catering directly to high-growth freight brokerages, helping them free up cash and grow even faster.

Even industry veterans are reemerging with new projects. Eddie Leshin,一个美国背包客和郊狼的老兵,从私人股本返回 to lead the new Anthym Logistics该公司由原子运输(Atomic Transportation)和考辛斯物流(Cousins Logistics)合并而成. 列辛的老合伙人杰夫·西尔弗(Jeff Silver)和保罗·勒布(Paul Loeb)成立了自己的软件公司, Mastery Logistics Systems.


XPO Logistics (NYSE: XPO)正在考虑剥离四项业务,以成为一家纯零担运输公司, 这可能包括其货运经纪业务. 首席执行官布拉德•雅各布斯(Brad Jacobs)表示,XPO之所以支付“综合折扣”,是因为公开市场没有正确评估这家货运代理公司的价值, brokerage and final-mile divisions of the company.

C.H. Robinson (NASDAQ: CHRW)在2019年第四季度陷入困境,利润同比下降45%. Hoexter写道,Robinson已经连续10个季度失去了市场份额. The giant of Eden Prairie, Minnesota, 在未来五年内,将10亿美元押注于技术投资将使其经纪人的生产力足以抵消利润率下降的影响吗.

萨斯奎哈纳公司的Bascome Majors担心,技术和行政支出可能永久性地增加,会对营业利润率造成什么影响, writing “the spend is not your friend” in a post-earnings client note; Goldman Sachs’ Jordan Alliger cut his CHRW price target to $65.

Notably, 短吻鳄并没有将来自新进入者的竞争压力视为罗宾逊业务的风险, 相反,预计即期利率相对于较低合约利率的上升将压缩利润率.

“欧冠冠军足彩仍然担心,由于近期受到持续价格压力的影响,2020年经纪业务将很难获得动力, 此外,由于竞争压力和现货交易量仍然疲软,合同重新定价环境可能出现疲软,” Alliger wrote.

J.B. Hunt’s (NASDAQ: JBHT) brokerage, Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS), ran at a loss in the fourth quarter of 2019, deeper than the loss it posted in the third quarter. 亨特正在大力投资技术,以推动货运和运力进入J.B. Hunt 360 platform, Hoexter指出哪一个在用户体验和服务/可靠性方面得分最高.

At the same time, 数字货运经纪公司正在经历爆炸式增长,但也付出了巨额亏损的代价. 周二,瑞银(UBS)互联网分析师埃里克·谢里丹(Eric Sheridan)开始关注优步, 他估计,2021年优步货运的收入将超过20亿美元. Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) reports fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 6, but in the third quarter, Freight lost $81 million.

In our view, 在增长方面,上市物流公司可能比私有的第三方物流公司处于劣势.

While venture capitalists have reemphasized gross margins and unit economics wework之后,风投支持的初创公司仍被鼓励烧钱以实现更快的增长. 尽管私人股本公司最关心的是利润增长——以息前利润衡量, taxes, 折旧和摊销(EBITDA)——丰厚的私人估值和低利率造就了它 easier to execute accretive rollups. 私人股本有限合伙人的资本被锁定多年, too, encouraging a long-term view of their investments.

Publicly traded logistics providers, on the other hand, 为了建立持久的股票价值,必须在增长和盈利之间取得微妙的平衡吗. 如果他们在货运周期的低谷时期过于依赖增长, their earnings collapse, and they risk being traded like deep cyclical asset-based names.

“货运经纪是一个极其分散和竞争激烈的市场,” commented Matt Pyatt, CEO of Austin, Texas-based Arrive Logistics, a private, 5-year-old brokerage that topped $525 million in 2019 revenue. “资金充足的公司在技术上的大量投资,正给整个物流领域的现代化带来越来越大的压力. 机遇仍然存在于那些朝着一流服务不断创新的公司, technology and scale.”

对于公开交易的第三方,必须每90天打开他们的账簿, it’s getting harder to thread the needle.


图片来源:Jim Allen / FreightWaves,原创文章发布在这里:

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